How the projection is built
The model starts from your recent stable weekly load, adds a conservative progression on loading weeks, inserts a reduced-load week after each three-week loading block, and optionally tapers the final event week. Training history changes the progression rate, but the result remains a guardrail rather than a target to chase.
Recovery weeks are deliberate. Fitness develops when training is absorbed, and a lower week creates room to assess whether sleep, motivation, soreness and workout quality are keeping pace with the planned load.
When to ignore the projection
Hold or reduce load when you are ill, unusually fatigued, persistently sore, sleeping poorly or losing workout quality. A missed week should not be repaid by jumping directly to the old projection. Re-establish consistency first.
Load points also miss important context. Strength work, technical riding, running, heat and life stress can raise total fatigue without appearing fully in cycling load. If you have a medical condition, symptoms during exercise or a long break from training, seek individual guidance before increasing load.
Methodology and sources
The formula and limitations above were checked against these research sources:
- Drew and Finch (2016), Training Load and Injury, Illness and SorenessSystematic review of training-load relationships and the rationale for monitoring sudden changes without claiming a universal safe rate.
- Eckard et al. (2018), Relationship Between Training Load and InjuryReview showing that direction and strength of associations depend on the load metric and timeframe.
- Haddad et al. (2017), Session-RPE Method for Training Load MonitoringSupports pairing duration and perceived effort with external load metrics.